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# Strict Analysis Report
## Analysis Question
- Compare Full Model, Frozen Encoder, and Subject Adapter on cross-subject decoding.
- Determine whether the adapter closes the transfer gap without sacrificing stability.
## Data Inventory
- 3 model families
- 5 random seeds per family
- subject-level WER and CER
- training logs for convergence
- ablation outputs for adapter width
## Executive Summary
- Subject Adapter improves mean WER over Frozen Encoder by 3.8 absolute points.
- The improvement is statistically significant under paired testing after multiple-comparison correction.
- Full fine-tuning remains strongest overall, but Subject Adapter offers the best compute-performance tradeoff.
- Performance variance is lower than Frozen Encoder, suggesting a more stable transfer path.
## Main Findings
### 1. Main comparison
- Full fine-tuning: `31.4 ± 1.9` WER
- Subject Adapter: `33.2 ± 1.3` WER
- Frozen Encoder: `37.0 ± 2.1` WER
Observation:
- Subject Adapter consistently outperforms Frozen Encoder across all 5 seeds.
Interpretation:
- The transfer bottleneck is not purely feature reuse; a light adaptation head captures subject-specific alignment that freezing alone misses.
Implication:
- Future work should prioritize adapter variants before investing in heavier full-model tuning.
### 2. Stability
- Subject Adapter has the smallest seed variance among transfer-friendly methods.
- Convergence curves show less oscillation after epoch 8.
Interpretation:
- Adapter tuning is not only better on average, but easier to optimize.
### 3. Ablation
- Reducing adapter width from 256 to 64 hurts WER by 1.6 points.
- Increasing from 256 to 512 yields only marginal improvement.
Interpretation:
- Most of the benefit is captured at moderate width; scale-up is not the current bottleneck.
## Caveats
- Only 5 seeds; inference about tails remains limited.
- Subject count is modest, so subject-level heterogeneity may still be under-estimated.
- Training-time comparison depends on identical hardware assumptions.
## Recommended Next Move
- Promote this finding into a `results-report` note focused on adapter vs freezing.
- Run one robustness pass on held-out low-resource subjects.

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# Figure Catalog
## Figure 1 — Main comparison
- **Filename**: `figures/figure-01-main-comparison.pdf`
- **Purpose**: Compare WER across Full fine-tuning, Subject Adapter, and Frozen Encoder.
- **Data source**: `metrics/summary.csv`
- **Plot type**: Bar + scatter overlay of seed-level points.
- **Error bars**: 95% CI.
- **Caption must include**:
- metric direction,
- number of seeds,
- meaning of error bars,
- whether significance markers are corrected.
- **Key observation**: Subject Adapter closes most of the freezing gap.
- **Interpretation checklist**:
- Is the adapter improvement consistent across seeds?
- Is the gap practically meaningful, not just statistically significant?
- Does the figure support a design decision?
## Figure 2 — Convergence dynamics
- **Filename**: `figures/figure-02-training-dynamics.pdf`
- **Purpose**: Compare optimization stability over epochs.
- **Data source**: `logs/train_curves.csv`
- **Plot type**: Mean line + uncertainty ribbon.
- **Caption must include**:
- smoothing rule if any,
- whether ribbon is std or CI,
- training/eval split.
- **Key observation**: Frozen Encoder shows larger oscillation after epoch 8.
- **Interpretation checklist**:
- Is instability transient or persistent?
- Does curve shape match final metric variance?
- Does this explain why one method is harder to tune?

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# Statistical Appendix
## Primary Metric
- Word Error Rate (WER), lower is better.
## Sample Structure
- Unit of analysis: seed-level run, paired by shared data split and subject pool.
- Number of seeds per condition: 5.
## Descriptive Statistics
| Condition | Mean WER | Std | 95% CI |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Full fine-tuning | 31.4 | 1.9 | [29.8, 33.0] |
| Subject Adapter | 33.2 | 1.3 | [32.1, 34.3] |
| Frozen Encoder | 37.0 | 2.1 | [35.1, 38.9] |
## Assumption Checks
- Shapiro-Wilk on paired differences: `p = 0.19`
- No strong evidence against normality for the primary contrast.
- Given small n, interpretation remains conservative.
## Inferential Tests
| Contrast | Test | Statistic | p | Effect size | Correction |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---|
| Subject Adapter vs Frozen Encoder | paired t-test | `t(4) = -4.11` | 0.014 | Cohen's `d = 1.84` | Holm |
| Full fine-tuning vs Subject Adapter | paired t-test | `t(4) = -2.03` | 0.112 | Cohen's `d = 0.91` | Holm |
## Interpretation Guardrails
- First contrast is supported after correction.
- Second contrast trends in favor of full fine-tuning but is not conclusive at this sample size.
## Blockers / Limits
- No subject-level bootstrap yet.
- No calibration analysis available.