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# Evidence Propagation
Use this file to keep `results-analysis` outputs aligned with the final report.
## Mapping rule
- `analysis-report.md` -> main findings and narrative summary
- `analysis-report.md#Claim Candidates` -> claim wording, uncertainty, and decisions that can be carried into the report
- `stats-appendix.md` -> test choice, uncertainty, effect size, correction rule
- `figure-catalog.md` -> figure purpose and per-figure interpretation scaffolding
- figure files -> visual evidence cited in `Figure-by-Figure Interpretation`
## Minimum statistical carry-over
Every strong claim in a results report should preserve:
- sample size or run/seed count,
- metric definition,
- uncertainty summary,
- test name,
- effect size when relevant,
- multiple-comparison handling when relevant.
## Unsupported claim rule
If the analysis bundle does not support a claim strongly enough, keep the claim tentative and say why.
Do not upgrade a suggestive result into a decisive conclusion during report writing.
## Claim candidate carry-over
Every claim carried from `results-analysis` should preserve:
- the source evidence,
- the allowed wording,
- the forbidden stronger wording,
- uncertainty,
- next check or decision.
Do not convert `speculative` or `observed` claims into decisive conclusions. The `What Changed Our Belief` section should cite either a Claim Candidate or an Evidence Record, not only free-form prose.

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# Decision-Oriented Analysis
The purpose of a post-experiment report is not only to record what happened.
It should change the project's next decision.
## Required final questions
- What should stop?
- What should continue?
- What should be tested next?
- What should be promoted into a durable result note?
- What, if anything, is ready for manuscript-facing writing?
## Good closing pattern
- “This round supports X.”
- “It does not yet resolve Y.”
- “The main blocker is Z.”
- “Therefore the next concrete action is A.”

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# Figure Interpretation in Results Reports
A results report should not dump figures.
For each major figure, write four blocks:
- **Why this figure exists**
- **What to notice**
- **What interpretation is supported**
- **What this changes in the project decision**
## Example micro-structure
### Figure X
- Purpose: compare adapter vs freezing under the same transfer setting.
- Observation: adapter improves mean WER and reduces variance.
- Interpretation: subject-specific adaptation likely resolves part of the transfer mismatch.
- Decision implication: prioritize adapter ablations before expanding frozen-only variants.

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# Report Naming Standard
## Filename
Use:
```text
YYYY-MM-DD--{experiment-line}--r{round}--{purpose}.md
```
Rules:
- date must be the report date,
- `experiment-line` should be short and stable,
- `round` should be zero-padded only if that is already the project convention; otherwise `r3` / `r03` are both acceptable if used consistently,
- `purpose` should describe why the report exists, not a vague label like `summary` unless that is truly the purpose.
Recommended purpose values:
- `transfer-summary`
- `ablation-report`
- `failure-analysis`
- `robustness-check`
- `round-review`
## Title
Use:
```text
{Experiment Line} / Round {N} / {Purpose} / {YYYY-MM-DD}
```
## Frontmatter fields
Required:
- `type: results-report`
- `date`
- `experiment_line`
- `round`
- `purpose`
- `status`
- `source_artifacts`
- `linked_experiments`
- `linked_results`
## Placement in Obsidian
Internal reports go to:
```text
Results/Reports/{filename}
```
Do not put internal experiment reports in `Writing/` unless they are already manuscript/slides/rebuttal material.

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# Results Report Structure
## 1. Executive Summary
Answer:
- what was tested,
- what the highest-confidence conclusion is,
- what decision this changes.
## 2. Experiment Identity and Decision Context
Answer:
- which experiment line this belongs to,
- why this round was run,
- what prior uncertainty or decision it was meant to resolve.
## 3. Setup and Evaluation Protocol
Answer:
- datasets / subjects / splits,
- methods compared,
- primary metrics,
- repeated-run structure,
- any deviations from prior protocol.
## 4. Main Findings
Answer:
- what changed most,
- which comparison matters most,
- where the largest gains or failures appear.
## 5. Statistical Validation
Answer:
- what evidence supports the major claims,
- what tests were used,
- where the evidence is weak.
## 6. Figure-by-Figure Interpretation
For each main figure:
- why it is shown,
- what to notice,
- what is supported,
- what remains uncertain.
## 7. Failure Cases / Negative Results / Limitations
Answer:
- what did not work,
- what instability appeared,
- what limits the current conclusion.
## 8. What Changed Our Belief
Answer:
- which prior hypothesis is strengthened,
- weakened,
- or still unresolved.
## 9. Next Actions
Answer:
- stop / continue / ablate / scale / write.
## 10. Artifact and Reproducibility Index
List:
- source artifacts,
- figure paths,
- scripts/logs,
- linked Obsidian notes.

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# Statistical Completeness for Results Reports
A report may summarize statistics, but it must not silently weaken them.
## Always carry forward
- sample size / seed count
- metric direction
- descriptive statistics
- uncertainty estimate
- test choice
- effect size
- correction rule when relevant
- evidence boundary
## Never do this in the report
- upgrade a trend to a conclusion
- omit the sample size
- replace effect size with adjectives like “large” without numbers
- cite a figure without saying what the uncertainty represents